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Hat In Ring wrote:I haven't checked out these presidential prediction points professor Lichtman made personally but I've seen this story on broadcast media. Most elections are in fact neck and neck except for a couple of presidential races where the poll loser came back and won from a serious point deficit.
Media polls swing wildly depending on which political party has more cash to pay off the pollsters. Injecting one or two corrupt polls into 10 good polls can alter the overall poll results in a political parties candidate favor. Usually the final polling in an election from what I've studied isn't that far off and what you will see after the election is the final election results compared to the final polling numbers which takes the suspicion off all the corrupt polling during the election.
Hopefully Professor Alan Lichtman will be correct again
Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly
By Peter W. Stevenson September 23 | Washington Post
Nobody knows for certain who will win on Nov. 8 — but one man is pretty sure: Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1984.
When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision. Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.
And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.
The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:
Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
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